On Writers Groups

- When I was young I really wanted to be a startup founder, and I think that the mental models I developed around that arena are especially helpful to authors

- This is based on ideas from Sam Altman and Paul Graham, as well as Scott Galloway. adw

- Risk frameworks for most people are poorly suited to reality. The odds are usually higher or lower than they seem (higher than some fixed amount, say 1%, or essentially 0). The odds of becoming a published author, president, NBA, etc.

Statistics from https://oliviablacke.com/what-are-the-odds/#:~:text=Something%20like%200.08%25%20of%20books,making%20the%20Best%20Sellers%20list. (go to original source) Oh no! Dooom!!! BUT

- To quote Sam Altman "it is hard to be wildly successful at anything you aren't obsessed with."

- Jim Carrey quote: "you can spend your life doing something you hate for stability and still fail."

- Brandon Sanderson quote: "The odds are closer to 1/20 than 1 out of 1 million

- In almost every domain, the top performers will eat most of the pie. The questions to ask are (1) can I (or someone very close to me whom I trust to be as objective as possible) compete at the very highest level of this domain? All other variables equal, this is the most important thing. And (2) is this something I want to HAVE DONE. The day-to-day work of almost any pursuit is not going to be incredibly satisfying for most people. But at the end, you get to release a product, whether a book, a piece of enterprise software, or a film. What achievements do you really want your name on?

- Living with dogma is really tough. It gets hard to operate if you have to second-guess your thinking.

- Talk about Lindsey Ellis having a platform, never getting published, then changing one tiny thing and getting published.